Caliban's First law on Understanding Human Behaviour

A while ago I heard a chap on the Today programme describing his researches into unaccountable deaths following transplant operations. Obviously there is a risk in such radical surgery, but the mortality rate was higher than the surgeons expected or could reasonably explain.

The vital clue came when the researcher interviewed a man who was dying after his second transplant operation. It transpired he had not been taking the prescribed medication, an essential component of the therapy.  The researcher followed up this lead, and discovered about twenty percent of all transplant patients failed to take the medication.

The interviewer was completely baffled. And he asked why on earth this should be the case, as all patients were carefully told about the critical importance of anti-rejection drugs.

The researcher explained. And although he chose his words carefully, in essence he said that around twenty percent of the population are mad. Transplant patients are a representative cross section of the community, so as you would expect, twenty percent of them are mad too.

So Caliban’s first law of Human behaviour is:

“Twenty percent of the population is mad.” 

He didn’t go on to define his terms. But I think we can reasonably assume that ‘mad’ covers a fairly broad spectrum.  And in my experience it ranges from slightly eccentric, through downright weird, to completely barking.

And once you understand the hypothesis, it is not only self evidently true, but also a very useful tool for understanding the world in which we live.  All those bizarre stories you will have heard or read in the newspaper and shaken your head in disbelief are suddenly explained!

All that talk about The Rapture, The End of Days, Scientology, Homeopathy, Horoscopes and much, much more, otherwise inexplicable nonsense is suddenly crystal clear. It’s the twenty percent at work.

Now, you will probably be looking askance at your family friends and neighbours. After all, twenty percent is one in five of the population! But there is good news. After some consideration I have realised the twenty percent are not evenly distributed among the general population. They clump. Some groups have a very high concentration of bonkers, while others have virtually none. As an example pop down to any radical religious group meeting and it will be positively teeming with crazy. On the other hand, pick a Church of England or Catholic Church and they will nearly all be disappointingly sane.

So unless you are crackers, there is a good chance your family and friends are sane too. Neighbours are less reliable as you don’t choose them. And indeed certain regions of the World seem especially prone to mad. The Middle East seems to have a very generous share that is way beyond its official twenty percent allocation. And worryingly a lot of them are leaders in government and religion. That could just be a reflection of the high level in society at large, but either way, it’s a good place for sane people to avoid.

And of course, most mad people do not go around waving their arms in the air and shouting hallelujah or allahu akbar. So mad can be quite hard to spot. And it often only comes out under particular circumstances. I suspect some mad people know they are quietly loopy and do their best to act normal, only when provoked or off guard does the loopy shine through.

A very good friend of mine and his wife became friendly with an older couple who were gentle and pleasant people. They became quite close and often exchanged mutual invitations to supper. The gentleman concerned was one of those heroic pilots who flew during the war. However one evening he carefully explained who during the war he never actually flew, as his spirit self had taken the aircraft up into the sky to fight leaving him safely on the ground. A brave man no doubt, but barmy as a box of bats. The suppers ceased forthwith.

An interesting codicil to Caliban’s law of Human Behaviour is:

“There is no idea, so mad, that someone somewhere will not believe it.”

This barely needs explanation. But just consider: Some people are Scientologists. Quite a lot of people (mostly in America of course) are Mormons. There are people who believe the story of Adam and Eve is literally true.

And just in case you think this is confined to religious groups, there is a Flat Earth Society. Some people insist they have been abducted by Aliens, others believe them. There are supporters of Big Foot, The Abominable Snowman, Leprechauns, Homeopathy, Horoscopes and all manner of clearly made up stuff.

It doesn’t matter how crazy the idea is somebody, somewhere will believe it. I suppose it all adds to the gaiety of nations and gives the rest of us sane ones a good laugh, but personally I find it rather tedious. Because no matter how bonkers the idea, you can be sure they will not only tell you all about it - but will expect you to believe it too.